Authorized and Regulated Entities: SARACEN MARKETS (PTY) LTD

Investor Rate Cut Bets Rise as JOLTS, Confidence Data Offer Mixed Signals on US Labor Market

2 weeks ago

Investor expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in November and December gained momentum on Tuesday as the latest JOLTS job openings report and consumer confidence data pointed to a potentially softer economic landing in the US. Job openings, a critical indicator of labor demand, fell from 7.86 million in August to 7.44 million in September, reflecting a weakening labor market that could dampen inflation driven by consumer spending. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index surprised on the upside, climbing from 99.2 in September to 108.7 in October, signaling resilient consumer sentiment and lending weight to hopes of a controlled economic slowdown.

The evolving labor dynamics shifted market rate expectations, with the odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December rising to 78.3% by October 29, up from 69.9% just a day earlier. Investors are closely watching these indicators as they assess the Fed’s policy trajectory for the remainder of the year.

Australian Inflation Slows, Tempering RBA Rate Cut Expectations

Australia’s latest inflation figures, released on Wednesday, suggested potential delays to an anticipated fourth-quarter rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Monthly CPI Indicator eased to 2.1% in September from 2.7% in August, approaching the lower boundary of the RBA’s 2–3% target range. However, underlying inflation remains elevated, slipping only slightly from 3.9% in Q2 to 3.5% in Q3, indicating price pressures that may prevent the RBA from moving on rates until early next year.

Weak Yen Supports Japanese Stocks as BoJ Maintains Dovish Outlook

In Japan, a softening sentiment toward a policy shift from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continued to weigh on the yen, with the USD/JPY pair staying anchored above the 153 level. This weaker yen has bolstered export-heavy Japanese stocks, with the Nikkei Index benefiting from rising demand for exports. The boost extended to tech stocks as well, fueled by positive sentiment following robust US earnings results. Investors remain attentive to BoJ policy signals ahead of its rate decision, which could significantly influence yen stability and Japanese market performance in the months ahead.

For a comprehensive understanding of the market’s outlook as provided by our esteemed analysts, we kindly invite you to signup as SaracenMarkets clients, here.