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Trump Policies Drive Inflation Expectations Amid Fed Rate Outlook

3 weeks ago

As markets adjust to the policy agenda outlined by US President-elect Donald Trump, traders are adopting a cautious stance, bracing for the inflationary pressures that could emerge from his planned tariffs and recent key administration nominations. The Dollar Spot Index held steady in advance of Wednesday’s US consumer price inflation report, as market participants focus on signs that Trump’s economic approach may intensify inflationary dynamics in the coming months.

Following Trump’s election, expectations of higher inflation have fueled a recalibration in rate cut forecasts, with markets now pricing in about two Fed rate cuts by June. However, traders remain wary that the combination of tariff increases and “America First” policies on trade and border control could further elevate inflation, complicating the Fed’s rate-cutting path. Treasury yields have risen accordingly, with investors positioning for potential losses on expectations that inflationary pressures could keep borrowing costs elevated.

This week’s CPI report will offer another key insight into inflation trends, with economists forecasting a 0.2% rise in the headline Consumer Price Index for a fourth consecutive month. Persistent inflation increases could prompt the Federal Reserve to rethink its easing strategy, especially as Trump’s economic policies unfold. Market analysts are closely watching whether the upcoming inflation data might sway the Fed’s December rate decision, given the already mounting concerns over sustained price growth.

As Trump’s administration begins to take shape, markets are recalibrating for a potentially more inflationary economic environment and the implications this could have on both US Treasury yields and the broader monetary policy outlook. Traders are poised for heightened volatility as they assess the new administration’s impact on the economic landscape, with inflation trends likely to set the tone for Fed policy in the near term.

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