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Diesel and refining margins stand to react more than flat crude. A US push to curb Ukraine's refinery strikes would, if
Pricing is running ahead of the message. Markets see a high probability of a quarter-point move next month, yet Stournaras is
Rate futures suggest markets still see a tightening Fed, with roughly a two-in-three chance that the policy rate ends 2026 at
Refined products are the likeliest first reaction, with diesel the focus and refining margins a cleaner signal than flat crude, since
The six-month high (NOTE: claims that are unverified) in Hormuz shipments is (if true!) a supply-side positive that should temper the
USD/JPY faces two-way risk in thin Asian trading duirng the first half of this week. An intervention-style drop would be amplified
Not too much change from late Friday:EUR/USD 1.1487USD/JPY 156.83GBP/USD 1.3384AUD/USD 0.7114USD/CAD 1.3991USD/CHF 0.8225NZD/USD 0.5723I'll be back with weekend news soon. This
AI safety deserves urgent leadership, serious investment and a place among our highest strategic priorities. Recent incidents justify growing concern I
US industrial production 0.0% versus 0.3% expectedKansas City Fed's Schmid: recent data suggest inflation trending above 3%Japan conducted an FX rate
WTI crude oil on the November contract is trading down $1.64 to $95.60.That's something of a win for the bears, as
Nikkei reports that earlier today the Bank of Japan conducted a 'rate check' on FX rates. The move is often seen
USD/JPY Whipsaws After BOJ Surprise: Guardrails Now in Place at 156.66 and 158.04The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by
Bitcoin Surges Back Above $80,000The price of bitcoin is surging and back above the $80,000 level. Today's low came in at
Comments from Kansas City Fed's Schmid cross the wires:Supported the rate hike; recent data suggest inflation trending above 3%The rate hike
The Nasdaq Composite has spent the past several months fighting the same ceiling. Since late spring, price has tested the 26,676.31
Fed Chair Warsh’s description of Wednesday’s hike as removing “a dose of accommodation” drove the 2-year Treasury yield and Dollar Index
What’s happening: AUD led the major currencies Friday while Yen was weakest. The BoJ hiked its policy rate 25bp to 1.25%,
Silver’s correction from 71.16 completed as a three-wave decline to 62.27, well above the $60 danger zone, with a firm break
USD/JPY is testing 157.11 as one widening policy differential, not two separate stories—the Fed is accelerating into a new tightening phase
Dollar retreated from its post-FOMC highs as Brent crude dropped more than 3% to below $103 and WTI fell around 2.8%
Gold tested its critical 4,230.70 support after Wednesday’s hawkish Fed hike but held, rebounding on a bullish four-hour divergence—a credible reversal
The Dollar Index confirmed a double-bottom reversal after Wednesday’s 25bp hike, with the 2-year Treasury yield and a weaker Dow reinforcing
What’s happening: Today’s Fed hike is effectively certain, 92.4% in CME pricing to near 100% in OIS, with the real question
One Fed hike is effectively certain today, but markets are pricing four hikes total at an approximately quarterly cadence—whether the SEP
Silver’s $60 floor should hold unless gold breaks first. A structural physical-market deficit gives the $60–60.44 zone real backing, but the
The CLARITY Act cloture vote has three possible market outcomes, not two—a clean win, a constructive near miss, or a wide
Gold has broken below $4,300 even as oil surges and tech stocks selloff, because oil-driven inflation risk is feeding a sharply
GBP/JPY enters a back-to-back central-bank week with three independent arguments for a rebound—the BoE’s hawkish bloc has little room to retreat,
The US two-year yield has already broken out toward a broader Fed tightening path, but the Dollar hasn’t followed — this
Why a stronger-than-expected CPI print sharply raised September Fed hike odds without producing a Dollar, yield or oil breakout that actually
Data source: FXStreet, Finance Magnates, DailyFX, Investing.com, Forexlive and Action Forex
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