All eyes are now on Thursday’s long delayed September jobs report, a release that carries outsized weight for markets hungry for direction. This data drop is effectively the only fresh labor reading the Fed will receive before its final policy meeting of 2025, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that no October jobs report will be published. Instead, October numbers will only appear within the combined November release well after the December FOMC meeting concludes.
That gap leaves policymakers navigating the final stretch of the year without one of their most important inputs, prompting traders to nearly price out a December rate cut entirely. Market odds now overwhelmingly favor the Fed keeping rates unchanged in the 3.75% – 4.00% range, reflecting the belief that officials are unlikely to act without a clear read on the employment backdrop.
The information blackout is also exposing divisions inside the Fed, with officials openly split on whether the economy is cooling enough to justify further easing. Minutes from the October meeting underscored this tension: while many policymakers signaled it “would likely be appropriate” to keep rates steady through year end, the tone leaned slightly hawkish, suggesting a preference to err on the side of caution.
What Traders Should Be Watching:
The September jobs report is set to dictate the tone for USD, Treasuries, and risk sentiment into the weekend. With the Fed essentially “flying blind,” the bar for policy action in December remains high and the market’s reaction today may define the final macro narrative of 2025.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or represent the official views of any central bank or regulatory body.