Commodity markets opened November on a volatile footing, led by swings in gold prices after China abruptly scrapped a long standing tax incentive on bullion. The move seen as a signal of Beijing’s efforts to cool speculative demand weighed on sentiment in one of the world’s largest consumer markets for precious metals. Gold fluctuated sharply after the announcement, extending a two week correction following its record surge in early October. Analysts said the tax change could curb near term buying momentum, offering room for a deeper correction that may attract institutional interest later this month.
Oil Climbs as OPEC+ Halts Supply Increases
Crude markets edged higher, with West Texas Intermediate rising modestly after OPEC+ confirmed it would pause further output increases. The alliance’s decision follows months of gradual hikes that had pressured prices amid signs of oversupply. Brent crude has lost nearly 10% in the past quarter, though renewed U.S. sanctions on Russian exports have injected fresh uncertainty into the supply outlook. The decision to hold output steady underscores OPEC+’s balancing act between stabilizing prices and supporting fragile demand growth.
Base Metals Under Pressure as China’s Growth Concerns Mount
Industrial commodities were broadly weaker, with iron ore and copper declining on renewed doubts over China’s economic momentum. Investors are wary that Beijing’s mixed signals on stimulus and regulation could cap demand for raw materials, especially as property sector woes continue to ripple through heavy industry. Markets will closely watch this week’s official manufacturing and trade data for further clarity on the health of the world’s second-largest economy.
Global Equities Extend Record Run Despite Policy Caution
Equities continued to climb to fresh record highs, buoyed by optimism around global growth and easing geopolitical risks. The rally comes even after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that a December rate cut remains uncertain. Powell’s remarks at last week’s FOMC press conference briefly unsettled markets, but traders remain confident the broader trend of monetary easing will persist into 2026. Mixed earnings from U.S. megacap tech names have done little to derail momentum, with investors instead focusing on resilient corporate profits and the ongoing artificial intelligence boom.
Dollar Holds Steady as Traders Await Fed Commentary
In currency markets, the dollar steadied after recent gains, as investors awaited remarks from Fed officials for further policy cues. Treasury futures edged higher while Australian yields rose ahead of Tuesday’s central bank decision, where policymakers are expected to keep rates unchanged. Analysts see the Dollar Spot Index potentially breaking to a six month high this week, with FX volatility likely to return amid a quieter corporate earnings calendar. The yen remains under pressure as traders bet on diverging policy paths between the Fed and the Bank of Japan.
Traders Brace for Busy Week of Central Bank Decisions
A wave of global central bank meetings will shape sentiment this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England are both expected to hold rates steady, reflecting a cautious stance amid uneven growth and sticky inflation. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown continues to cloud the data outlook by delaying key economic reports, adding an element of uncertainty to the Fed’s next move.
Market Outlook: Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Optimism
Despite October’s turbulence from trade friction to policy uncertainty markets enter November with renewed confidence. The combination of a U.S.–China trade truce, firm corporate earnings, and expectations for future rate cuts continues to support risk appetite. However, with commodities adjusting to China’s latest policy shift and central banks approaching a critical juncture, traders should stay nimble as short-term volatility returns to the forefront of global markets.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or represent the official views of any central bank or regulatory body.