China Strikes Back in Trade Dispute, Shaking Risk Sentiment as Gold Pulls Back

Global markets turned cautious on Tuesday after Beijing launched a fresh round of retaliatory measures against Washington, reigniting concerns that the trade truce narrative could unravel. China announced restrictions on five US subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., a move widely interpreted as retaliation for ongoing American probes targeting China’s maritime and shipbuilding sectors.

The escalation sent risk appetite sharply lower, sparking renewed volatility across asset classes. Gold retreated after a brief early rally, while risk sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar weakened against the greenback. Bond markets, meanwhile, drew safe haven inflows as investors sought cover amid the renewed policy uncertainty.

Trade Tensions Resurface, Testing Market Nerves

China’s countermeasures have revived fears that the fragile trade relationship between the world’s two largest economies is once again under threat. The timing of Beijing’s announcement  coming just days after US President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to reopen dialogue  has raised questions over how sustainable last week’s calm truly was.

For now, traders are treating the latest pullback as a short term correction rather than a fundamental shift in trend. Market participants described Tuesday’s moves as “fast money repositioning,” noting that liquidity remains thin and momentum fragile. Still, the renewed friction reinforces a growing narrative among institutional investors: the “debasement trade”  a long term rotation into tangible assets like gold and commodities as a hedge against swelling US deficits and potential policy instability.

Gold and Safe Havens Caught in a Tug of War

Gold’s record breaking run paused as traders locked in profits amid shifting cross asset sentiment. The metal’s recent performance continues to reflect a broader repositioning into hard assets amid fears of currency erosion and fiscal excess. “The relentless bid for precious metals tells us investors are bracing for another wave of volatility  not running from it,” .

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to ease concerns, saying he still expects Presidents Trump and Xi to meet “in due course.” However, he cautioned that Washington remains ready to retaliate against Beijing’s tightening of export controls on rare earth materials  a vital component in global manufacturing and defense industries.

China Softens Tone, But Market Skepticism Persists

Later in the day, Beijing clarified that its export control measures on rare earths are not outright bans, emphasizing that qualifying applications would continue to be approved. The clarification helped temper immediate fears of full scale trade disruption, but traders remain skeptical. Markets have seen this movie before  rhetorical softening after sharp escalation  and few are willing to bet on a quick resolution.

SARACEN MARKETS VIEW

• Macro Focus: The renewed US–China friction underscores persistent geopolitical fragility and its potential to derail short-term sentiment.
• Market Implications: Expect continued two way volatility in risk assets as traders weigh trade uncertainty against expectations of further Federal Reserve easing.
• Commodity Watch: Gold’s pullback may be temporary  the structural case for higher prices remains supported by global fiscal imbalances and investor demand for protection assets.
• Currency Insight: Commodity linked currencies, particularly the AUD and NZD, may stay pressured if trade rhetoric escalates further.

Global markets are once again at a crossroads: trade politics are back in play, liquidity remains thin, and sentiment is fragile. For traders, this is not a week to chase momentum  it’s a week to watch headlines, manage exposure, and stay nimble.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or represent the official views of any central bank or regulatory body.