Market Outlook

The yen appreciated beyond 155 per dollar for the first time since early June, as traders recalibrated their positions in anticipation of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in the coming months, if not at its policy meeting next week. Although only about 30% of BOJ analysts expect a rate increase on July […]

Traders are reevaluating the so-called Trump trades as Vice President Kamala Harris garners support among Democrats, juxtaposing political developments with the anticipated economic data and future U.S. interest rate trajectory. This recalibration occurs ahead of a significant week marked by a series of auctions, a report on U.S. economic growth, and an update on the Federal

Asian currencies declined on Friday as economic and geopolitical risks overshadowed the market’s optimism about potential interest-rate cuts. The disappointment stemmed from China’s Third Plenum, which failed to convince investors of a renewed growth impetus. Today’s negative price action in Asian equities is more attributed to concerns over new US restrictions on the semiconductor sector and

Gold’s upward momentum might face resistance if the US Dollar makes a strong comeback driven by risk aversion. A modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields could also hinder gold’s advance. The renewed strength in gold prices early Thursday is attributed to escalating US-China trade tensions, which are expected to intensify with a likely Trump presidency.

Traders are recalibrating portfolios as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve will soon begin cutting interest rates. Optimism about imminent Fed easing, bolstered by signs of resilience in US retail sales, has supported a shift towards risk-on sentiment. However, the increasing likelihood of a Donald Trump presidency has simultaneously heightened concerns over potential geopolitical and trade

The U.S. dollar surged and Treasury futures declined as investors heightened their bets on a potential Donald Trump victory in the upcoming presidential election following an assassination attempt. The greenback appreciated against all Group-of-10 currencies, while futures indicated a rise in Treasury yields as European cash trading loomed. These market moves reflect expectations that a Trump administration would

U.S. inflation data bolstered the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Treasury yields remaining stable following a significant drop. The prospect of lower interest rates sent 10-year yields down by seven basis points to 4.21% in the previous session. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee hailed the CPI data as “excellent,” noting that it provided

Traders are bracing for a pivotal U.S. consumer inflation report, with the dollar falling against most major currencies ahead of the release. The upcoming data is expected to indicate easing price pressures, potentially increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy costs and is considered

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell refrained from specifying a timeline for interest rate cuts in his testimony to lawmakers on Tuesday. However, he highlighted increasing signs of a cooling job market, citing government data that showed a third consecutive month of rising unemployment. Shorter-term Treasuries outperformed on expectations that they would benefit more from potential policy easing.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will commence his semi-annual testimony to Congress on Tuesday, a critical event that could influence market expectations for a September interest-rate cut. Market participants are pricing in the likelihood of two rate cuts this year, with a 70% chance of the first cut in September, according to swaps data. Powell is under