Authorized and Regulated Entities: SARACEN MARKETS (PTY) LTD

Author name: Market Outlook

US Policy Divide Deepens as Fed Officials Signal Divergent Paths Amid Political Pressure 1

US Policy Divide Deepens as Fed Officials Signal Divergent Paths Amid Political Pressure

Diverging signals from Federal Reserve policymakers, coupled with persistent political pressure on Chair Jerome Powell, continue to drive uncertainty across global markets. While strong labor data and improving retail sales support the underlying resilience of the US economy, an increasingly fractured policy environment raises critical questions about the central bank’s ability to maintain a consistent […]

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Dollar Rebounds Amid Fed Chair Uncertainty, But Institutional Risks Remain Elevated 3

Dollar Rebounds Amid Fed Chair Uncertainty, But Institutional Risks Remain Elevated

The US dollar regained ground in Thursday’s session after retreating sharply the day before, as market volatility subsided following President Trump’s attempt to defuse speculation about the premature removal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. While the President’s comments restored some calm to financial markets, the broader risk surrounding central bank independence remains firmly in

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US Inflation Dampens Rate Cut Expectations, Dollar Holds Steady Amid Tariff Overhang 5

US Inflation Dampens Rate Cut Expectations, Dollar Holds Steady Amid Tariff Overhang

US inflation data for June has prompted market participants to scale back expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. Although a September rate reduction is still on the table, its likelihood has been meaningfully downgraded. Strong labor market data earlier this month already tempered expectations, but with signs now emerging

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Markets on CPI Watch as Tariff Risks and Political Pressure Cloud US Rate Path 7

Markets on CPI Watch as Tariff Risks and Political Pressure Cloud US Rate Path

Markets enter the new week navigating a delicate equilibrium between renewed geopolitical tension, persistent political pressure on the US Federal Reserve, and the highly anticipated release of June’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. President Donald Trump’s latest 100% tariff threat on Russia, coupled with escalating criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, has intensified uncertainty

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Markets Brace for Escalation as 30% Tariffs on EU and Mexico Amplify Trade Policy Uncertainty 9

Markets Brace for Escalation as 30% Tariffs on EU and Mexico Amplify Trade Policy Uncertainty

Financial markets began the week on a cautious note following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union (EU) and Mexico. The policy development adds another layer of complexity to a trade landscape already destabilised by previous levies on a wide spectrum of US trading partners, including Canada, Brazil,

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Copper Tariffs Intensify 'Sell America' Narrative as Policy Divisions Emerge Within the Fed 11

Copper Tariffs Intensify ‘Sell America’ Narrative as Policy Divisions Emerge Within the Fed

Trade tensions escalated sharply following the formal announcement by President Donald Trump of a 50% tariff on copper imports, effective August 1. The move reinforces the administration’s protectionist trajectory and further unsettles global markets. Price action in commodity and currency markets indicates investors are beginning to internalise the broader inflationary and policy implications of Trump’s

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Market Sentiment Falters as Trump Signals Sharp Escalation in Commodity Tariffs 13

Market Sentiment Falters as Trump Signals Sharp Escalation in Commodity Tariffs

Global financial markets entered a renewed phase of caution following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a higher than anticipated 50% tariff on metal imports, with additional levies targeting copper and pharmaceuticals reportedly under consideration. The abrupt escalation in trade policy has added to investor uncertainty, particularly given the lack of policy coherence and the

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Markets Steady as Trump Delays Tariff Escalation, Euro Gains on EU Deal Prospects 15

Markets Steady as Trump Delays Tariff Escalation, Euro Gains on EU Deal Prospects

Global markets began the week on a firmer footing after President Donald Trump temporarily deferred the implementation of newly announced tariffs, signalling an openness to further negotiations. The delay, alongside ongoing bilateral trade talks, has eased short term uncertainty, allowing risk sentiment to improve moderately. The US dollar weakened slightly, while the euro advanced amid

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Rising Trade Tensions Reassert Risks Despite Resilient Labour Data 19

Rising Trade Tensions Reassert Risks Despite Resilient Labour Data

Markets are navigating a mixed set of signals as President Donald Trump intensifies trade threats ahead of a critical July 9 deadline, while stronger than expected labour market data in the US has tempered expectations for immediate monetary easing. The US financial markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday, resulting in lighter trading conditions.

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