Markets Brace for Data Comeback as U.S. Government Shutdown Nears End

After weeks of silence on jobs and inflation, investors are preparing for a volatile return of macro data that could deliver sharp surprises. While optimism over the “back to business” narrative is lifting risk sentiment, markets remain cautious, aware that the upcoming data releases could redefine the Fed’s rate trajectory and market direction heading into year end.

The Senate’s passage of a temporary funding bill, supported by a bipartisan group of lawmakers, marks a key breakthrough. The measure expected to be finalized as early as Wednesday  follows rising public frustration amid flight disruptions, delayed food assistance, and unpaid federal workers.

Risk Appetite Returns, But Not Without Caution

Equities extended gains on Monday, with optimism spilling across asset classes as traders rotated into higher risk positions. Commodities rallied broadly, pushing a key global index to its highest since August 2022. Gold and Bitcoin sustained upward momentum, while the dollar edged higher  a sign of cautious hedging as investors brace for a flood of delayed economic releases.

Bond markets, however, told a more tempered story. Treasury yields climbed as investors trimmed exposure ahead of this week’s $125 billion in auctions, a key test of demand amid uncertainty over the Fed’s next moves. Trading pauses Tuesday for the Veterans Day holiday, offering a brief lull before data volatility potentially returns in force.

Metals and Commodities Signal Industrial Resilience

Aluminum extended its rally alongside copper as traders weighed China’s ongoing capacity curbs against resilient global consumption. Having recently reached a three-year high, aluminum remains among the strongest performers on the London Metal Exchange  underscoring investor confidence in industrial demand despite macroeconomic jitters.

Gold advanced for a third consecutive session, trading above $4,130 an ounce as markets continue to price in a softer Fed stance heading into 2026. Brent crude, meanwhile, was little changed near $64 a barrel, signaling balanced sentiment between cautious supply expectations and moderate demand recovery.

Trading Implications: What Traders Should Watch

1. U.S. Dollar (USD):
Expect short term volatility as economic data resumes. A strong rebound in inflation or jobs could revive bets on the Fed delaying rate cuts  supporting the dollar. Conversely, weaker figures may pressure USD lower as dovish expectations gain traction.

2. Gold (XAU):
Momentum remains bullish as long as real yields stay contained. Traders may look for pullbacks toward support zones to add to long positions, especially if U.S. data points to cooling inflation.

3. Risk Assets (Equities & Crypto):
The return of U.S. data could inject both opportunity and turbulence. Maintain tight risk management positive surprises may fuel another leg higher in equities, but any signs of economic softness could trigger sharp reversals.

4. Commodities:
Industrial metals remain underpinned by resilient demand and supply constraints in China. Watch for price corrections to identify entry points amid the broader uptrend.

The U.S. data blackout is ending  and the next few weeks will set the tone for global markets. Traders should stay alert, data focused, and ready for a shift in volatility as the Fed’s path becomes clearer.